04/08/2024 Market Analysis

Week Ahead: Central Bank Drives Currencies

United States of America

Fed Easing to Weigh on USD

The US Dollar (USD) is expected to weaken as the Federal Reserve (Fed) transitions towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance. The central bank’s anticipated rate cuts aim to bolster economic growth, reducing the USD’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Economic Headwinds

While the US economy has shown resilience, concerns about the quality of growth and the potential for a slowdown are mounting. This could further dampen investor confidence in the USD.

Short-Term Volatility Expected

Despite the overall bearish outlook, the USD may experience short-term rallies due to market volatility and position adjustments. However, the long-term trend suggests a weakening dollar as the Fed’s policy shift takes effect.

Key Factors

• Federal Reserve Policy: The pace and extent of rate cuts will be crucial for the USD’s trajectory.
• Economic growth: The strength and sustainability of the US economy will impact investor sentiment towards the USD.
• Global economic conditions: A weakening global economy could benefit the USD as a safe-haven asset.
• Geopolitical tensions: Escalating geopolitical risks could also bolster USD demand.

Australia

RBA’s Hawkish Stance Supports AUD

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has shown resilience despite recent market volatility. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has adopted a notably hawkish stance compared to other G10 central banks, including the Bank of Canada. This has led investors to anticipate that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period, bolstering the AUD’s appeal.

Market Expectations and Price Action

While the market currently prices in a rate cut for mid-2025, the RBA’s hawkish rhetoric has tempered expectations for significant easing. This divergence between market sentiment and central bank policy has contributed to the AUD’s strength.

However, the currency experienced a sharp decline in the latter half of July due to the unwinding of yen carry trades. This selling pressure drove the AUD from a six-month high near $0.6800 to a low of $0.6515.

Short-Term Forecast

We believe that the recent sell-off represents an overreaction and that the AUD is poised for a recovery in the coming weeks. The fundamental factors supporting the currency, such as the RBA’s hawkish bias, remain intact.

Nevertheless, it’s essential to acknowledge that repairing the technical damage caused by the sharp decline may take some time. Traders should exercise caution and monitor market developments closely.

Key Points:

• RBA maintains a hawkish stance compared to other G10 central banks.
• Market expectations for rate cuts are positioned for mid-2025.
• The recent sell-off is likely an overreaction due to the yen carry trade unwinding.
• AUD is expected to recover but technical repair may take time.

Canada

BoC Easing Weighs on CAD

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been under pressure due to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) dovish policy stance. The central bank’s rate cut in July and expectations of further easing have weakened the currency. While the interest rate differential between Canada and the US remains supportive, the CAD has faced headwinds.

Economic Indicators Mixed

Domestic economic data has shown mixed signals. Inflation has moderated, providing the BoC with room to manoeuvre. However, the deteriorating labour market, highlighted by a rising unemployment rate, poses challenges.

USD Strengthens Against CAD

The US Dollar (USD) has gained ground against the CAD, reaching a yearly high. Recent US economic data has prompted a slight pullback in the USD/CAD pair. A sustained move below the 1.3780-1.3800 level is necessary to indicate a potential top for the pair.

Outlook

The Canadian Dollar’s future direction will depend on the interplay between BoC policy, domestic economic developments, and the broader USD trend.

Europe

ECB Easing Pressures Euro

The Euro (EUR) has faced downward pressure due to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) accommodative monetary policy. With multiple interest rate cuts anticipated, the currency’s outlook remains challenging.

Economic Growth and Political Climate

Economic growth in the Eurozone has been sluggish, while the political landscape has stabilized. However, the region faces headwinds from rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions.

Inflation and Interest Rates

Inflation in the Eurozone has been moderating, but the base effect from last year’s sharp price increases could impact future readings. The widening interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve’s more aggressive tightening path, is a key factor influencing the EUR/USD exchange rate.

EUR/USD Dynamics

The EUR has shown resilience, finding support near $1.0775. However, the pair’s peak near $1.0950 in mid-July remains a significant resistance level.

Outlook

The Euro’s trajectory will be determined by the interplay of ECB policy, economic performance, and the broader global economic environment, particularly the US.

Japan

BoJ Policy Shift

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has made a significant policy shift, hiking its overnight target rate and signalling further tightening. This move, coupled with a reduction in bond purchases, marks a departure from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. While the market initially anticipated more aggressive tightening, the recent decline in Japanese equities has tempered expectations.

Yen Strengthens Amid Intervention

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has strengthened significantly, benefiting from the BoJ’s policy adjustment and covert intervention. The central bank’s intervention to support the yen has been substantial, amounting to approximately JPY15 trillion since April. This intervention, combined with a short squeeze, drove the USD/JPY pair sharply lower.

Outlook for USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair has broken below key technical levels, suggesting potential for further downside. While momentum indicators are stretched, the pair could decline towards JPY145 and potentially JPY140 in the coming weeks. The BoJ’s hawkish rhetoric and weak US economic data have contributed to the yen’s strength.

Key Points

• BoJ shifts to tighter monetary policy
• Massive yen intervention by Japanese authorities
• USD/JPY under pressure with potential for further decline
• Yen strength driven by BoJ policy and weak US data

United Kingdom

BoE Initiates Rate-Cutting Cycle

The Bank of England (BoE) has commenced its rate-cutting cycle with a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates. While the central bank has adopted a cautious approach to forward guidance, market expectations point to further easing in the coming months.

Inflation Pressures Easing

Inflation in the UK is showing signs of moderation, with the peak likely behind the economy. However, persistent inflationary pressures are expected to challenge the BoE’s ability to achieve its 2% target swiftly.

Fiscal Consolidation and Economic Outlook

The new UK government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation, as evidenced by the projected deficit reduction, could positively impact investor sentiment towards the pound. However, economic growth prospects remain uncertain, which may limit the pound’s upside potential.

Sterling Exchange Rate

The British Pound (GBP) has experienced a recent pullback from its yearly high but appears to have found support. A sustained move above the $1.29 level could signal a retest of the 2023 high near $1.3140.

Key Factors

• BoE Monetary Policy: The central bank’s policy stance and future rate decisions will significantly impact the pound.
• Inflation: The trajectory of inflation will influence the BoE’s policy decisions and investor sentiment.
• Fiscal Policy: The government’s fiscal policies and their impact on economic growth will affect the pound’s value.
• Global Economic Conditions: Global economic developments, including the performance of the US economy and the Eurozone, will influence GBP exchange rates.