27/06/2025 Week Ahead
The US dollar steadied today after suffering deep losses in the previous session, falling to multiyear lows against the euro and sterling and to a decade low against the Swiss franc. Market sentiment was somewhat buoyed by reports of trade deals progressing, along with confirmed agreements involving China. Additional relief came from the United States securing an exemption from the OECD's Pillar 2 corporate tax reform, and the decision to abandon the so-called "revenge tax" under Section 899 of the budget proposal. There is also speculation that the postponement of reciprocal tariffs could be extended beyond the current July 9 deadline. Despite this stabilisation, the dollar has yet to gain any significant traction and remains near its recent lows.
Equity markets responded more optimistically. Most Asia Pacific indices moved higher, led by a gain of over 1% in Japanese stocks, while China, Hong Kong, and Australia lagged. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose close to 1%, with hopes of marking its first back-to-back advance in three weeks if momentum holds. US index futures posted moderate gains of around 0.2% to 0.3%. Benchmark government yields also inched higher. Japanese 10-year yields climbed to a weekly high near 1.43% with a two basis point increase. European yields edged up less than one basis point, enough to lift Germany’s 10-year Bund to a weekly high of approximately 2.57%. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by about three basis points to 4.27%, though it remains roughly eight basis points lower on the week.
Meanwhile, gold prices slipped to a fresh monthly low around $3282, while oil markets stayed confined within familiar boundaries. August WTI continued to trade inside the ranges set earlier in the week, reflecting subdued momentum.
The US dollar remains under significant pressure, struggling to recover despite developments in trade agreements and the proposed removal of the so-called “revenge tax” from the federal budget. The Dollar Index continues to hover near a three-year low around 97.00, having briefly reached higher levels earlier before retreating once more during European trading hours. Markets are focused on the upcoming release of the PCE deflator, with most economists expecting little surprise given previous CPI and PPI figures this month. Both headline and core measures are projected to rise by 0.1%, nudging annual rates slightly higher.
Beyond the inflation metrics, there is growing concern about weakening consumption. The first-quarter GDP revision showed consumer spending slowing from 1.2% to just 0.5%, and personal consumption in April rose only 0.2%, with a median forecast for May showing a further slowdown to 0.1%. Rising household debt stress, declining consumer confidence, and slower job growth have all contributed to a more fragile consumption outlook. Inflation-adjusted consumption through May has been running at half the pace seen in the same period of 2024. Against this backdrop, the futures market is pricing in roughly a 21% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, up from 16% a week ago, although lower than the 28% odds seen before public criticism of Chair Powell and speculation about his replacement surfaced.
The Canadian dollar recorded its strongest daily advance of the month yesterday, gaining around 0.7% against the US dollar. After being rejected near CAD1.38 on Monday, the greenback retreated to below CAD1.3620, though it has since stabilised above CAD1.3625 and faces resistance around CAD1.3650. Despite this recent strength, the Canadian dollar remains one of the weaker G10 performers for the month, ahead only of the Japanese yen, which declined by approximately 0.2%. For the year to date, the Canadian dollar has climbed 5.4%, placing it at the bottom of the G10 rankings apart from the Australian dollar, which has gained nearly 5.8%. The year’s low for the USD/CAD pair was seen on June 16 around CAD1.3540.
The US dollar reached a new yearly low against the offshore yuan yesterday, touching approximately CNH7.1525 before recovering above CNH7.17 in early European trading. Later in the day, the greenback softened again, testing the CNH7.16 level, and has since stabilised within yesterday’s trading range. The People’s Bank of China set the dollar’s reference rate today at CNY7.1627, broadly unchanged from the previous day and slightly lower than a week earlier.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has continued to tighten liquidity to defend the Hong Kong dollar peg, which may have indirectly eased upward pressure on the yuan by discouraging speculative short Hong Kong dollar and long yuan positions. On the economic front, China reported that industrial profits declined by 1.1% during the first five months of this year compared with the same period in 2024. Additionally, China confirmed its trade agreement with the United States, which includes the phased lifting of some US sanctions and a renewed supply of ethane, expected after the resumption of rare earth and magnet shipments.
No major economic releases are scheduled today.
The euro rallied sharply yesterday, breaking through the $1.17 level with option-related demand seen as a key driver. The surge coincided with nearly six billion euros of options expiring between yesterday and July 1, according to DTCC data. The euro reached a high near $1.1745 during early European trading and approached that level again in the New York afternoon before losing momentum. Today it has remained steady, fluctuating within a narrow band around $1.17. If the euro breaks below $1.1680, short-term traders may pull back, potentially opening a path toward $1.1650, where further options of 2.1 billion euros are set to expire on Monday.
Economic data from the region added to market interest. France reported its harmonised June CPI rose 0.4%, double expectations, lifting the annual rate to 0.8% from 0.6%. Spain also reported a 0.6% monthly gain, with annual inflation slowing to 2.2% from 2.4%. Looking ahead, the eurozone's June CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% month-over-month, with the annual rate expected to hold steady at 1.9%. This inflation picture continues to shape market expectations for the region.
The yen strengthened over recent sessions as the dollar retreated from levels near JPY146 on Wednesday to around JPY143.75 yesterday, largely driven by broad dollar weakness and declining US interest rates. The greenback settled below its 20-day moving average, around JPY144.55, for the first time in two weeks and has since traded quietly within the narrowest weekly range, between JPY144.20 and JPY144.80.
On the economic front, inflation data from Tokyo showed a softer trend. The headline consumer price index rose 3.1% year-over-year in June, easing from 3.4% in May. The core measure excluding fresh food also moderated to 3.1% from 3.6%, while the measure excluding fresh food and energy fell to 3.1% from 3.3%. These trends are expected to be reflected in national inflation figures as well. The market continues to see negligible chances of a rate hike at the end of the July Bank of Japan meeting, with some forecasts now pushing any possible increase into 2026.
Japan also released May retail sales data, which showed a surprise decline of 0.2% versus expectations for a 0.3% increase, following a 0.7% rise in April. Consumption in GDP terms has remained more stable than either government spending or private investment. Japan’s economy contracted at an annualised rate of 0.2% in the first quarter and is estimated to have improved only slightly in the second quarter. In labour data, May’s unemployment rate held steady at 2.5%, while the job-to-applicant ratio declined to 1.24 from 1.26, its lowest reading since early 2022.
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