Category: Week Ahead

05/10/2025 Week Ahead U.S. Shutdown Drags On, Political Shifts Abroad Key Takeaways: The US federal government shutdown began on 1 October as Congress failed to pass funding bills. Financial markets stayed resilient, with major US, European and Asian equity indices reaching record highs. Treasury yields fell, led by the 10-year note, and the US dollar… Continue reading U.S. Shutdown Drags On, Political Shifts Abroad

28/09/2025 Week Ahead A Volatile October Ahead Key Takeaways: October opens with elevated geopolitical and economic risks. US tariffs expand to new sectors, with major legal challenges ahead. Federal Reserve eyes further rate cuts as labor market weakens. ECB remains cautious, while Europe faces heightened military tensions. China’s political meeting signals new economic planning and… Continue reading A Volatile October Ahead

20/09/2025 Week Ahead Dollar Correction Regains Ground Key Takeaways: Dollar fell early last week after the Fed rate cut, then rebounded on higher yields. Powell and SEP sounded less dovish than expected, limiting downside. Near-term US dollar gains look corrective, not structural. Focus shifts to Fed speakers, with 14 scheduled including Powell on 23/09. US… Continue reading Dollar Correction Regains Ground

13/09/2025 Week Ahead Fed Uncertainty & Crowded Trades Dominate the Week Ahead Key Takeaways: Five G10 central bank meetings are scheduled this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bp, though a 50 bp cut is not fully ruled out. Political tensions are raising questions about the Fed’s independence. US developments… Continue reading Fed Uncertainty & Crowded Trades Dominate the Week Ahead

06/09/2025 Week Ahead Central Bank Steady, Politics in Focus Key Takeaways: Poor US jobs data fuels speculation of a 50 bp Fed rate cut, but risks appear overstated. Headline CPI release could temper expectations of aggressive easing. ECB expected to keep policy steady, but French political risks dominate. Fitch may downgrade France as deficit reduction… Continue reading Central Bank Steady, Politics in Focus

31/08/2025 Week Ahead Fed Prepares for Measured Cuts Amid Shifting Dynamics Key Takeaways: The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps in September, not 50 bps. Dollar strength is likely to ease but not collapse. Legal battles challenge presidential powers under IEEPA and Fed independence. Washington prepares targeted tariffs on key industries. China… Continue reading Fed Prepares for Measured Cuts Amid Shifting Dynamics

24/08/2025 Week Ahead Dollar Drops as Powell Shifts Balance of Risks Key Takeaways: Powell signaled rising downside risks to employment and hinted policy may need to adjust. US assets rallied and the dollar sold off sharply. Forecasts suggest another weak jobs report in early September. Policy divergence between the Fed and other G10 central banks… Continue reading Dollar Drops as Powell Shifts Balance of Risks

16/08/2025 Week Ahead Shifting Monetary Paths Put Pressure on the U.S. Dollar Key Takeaways: US dollar weakened across major currencies, except the dollar bloc. Markets considered a larger Federal Reserve cut, but expectations remain for 25 bps. Preliminary August PMI data will have limited impact. Jackson Hole symposium focuses on labor markets. Reserve Bank of… Continue reading Shifting Monetary Paths Put Pressure on the U.S. Dollar

09/08/2025 Week Ahead U.S. Labor Market Weakness Shifts Fed Outlook Key Takeaways: July’s US jobs data signaled a potential turning point for monetary policy. Two dovish FOMC governor dissents reflected concerns over labor market weakness. Markets are pricing in a strong likelihood of a September Fed rate cut, with at least two cuts expected by… Continue reading U.S. Labor Market Weakness Shifts Fed Outlook

03/08/2025 Week Ahead August’s Breaking Point: Tariffs & Labor Strains Key Takeaways: U.S. universal tariffs redefine global trade and heighten geopolitical risk. Weak U.S. labor market data increases pressure for Fed rate cuts. Monetary policy paths diverge sharply between major central banks. China strengthens its technological and strategic influence. August is a critical turning point… Continue reading August’s Breaking Point: Tariffs & Labor Strains