Category: Market Analysis

GBP/AUD https://www.tradingview.com/x/I7mpgvsi In this scenario, the GBP/AUD trade is driven purely by technical analysis. The price has broken a key resistance level, and now we’re waiting for the retest of that level to enter a long position. The break and retest strategy is a common technical pattern that often signals strong market continuation. However, from…

This week, global markets will closely watch several key central bank decisions. The U.S. Federal Reserve remains focused, with uncertainty surrounding whether it will opt for a small or more substantial interest rate cut. Speculation about a 50 basis point reduction has been building, particularly after recent CPI data. Last week saw significant market reactions,…

USD/CAD https://www.tradingview.com/x/9BskMjfg/ Oil prices, a significant driver of the CAD, are expected to stabilize, further supporting the currency. Markets may price in two more 25 bps rate cuts from the Bank of Canada (BOC), but with the Fed set to cut rates more aggressively, shorting USD/CAD could be the better trade. The CAD may strengthen…

Investors await U.S. inflation data, expecting potential Fed rate cuts. Recent jobs data reduced the chance of a 50 bp cut at the September FOMC meeting. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-10-year yield curve showing a positive slope for the first time since July 2022. The European Central Bank is likely to cut rates at…

AUD/CAD https://www.tradingview.com/x/9qRHDBde RBA Governor Bullock has suggested that there may be insufficient scope for a rate cut this year. Despite analysts and investors expressing hope for a reduction, no such adjustment has been factored into the market as the RBA maintains a hawkish stance. Conversely, considering the current inflationary pressures (CPI), we anticipate a dovish…

As summer transitions to fall, monetary policy and political events will significantly shape the business and investment environment. The market, initially expecting aggressive rate cuts in 2023, has now adjusted closer to central bank signals, with global rates rising and the dollar regaining strength in early 2024. The Federal Reserve is expected to be one…

In the middle of last week, the Fed funds futures discounted 103 basis points of cuts for this year. After some movement following Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, the market finished the week with 104 basis points of cuts priced into the Fed funds futures curve. The two-year note yield settled at a three-week low, and…

Generally known as Jackson Hole, it is an annual conference of global central bankers. This year’s topic is Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy. All eyes are on the Jackson Hole Symposium as markets anticipate imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. PMIs take the lead for European economies, with surveys assessing the level of…

A deluge of economic data is expected to shape market sentiment in the coming days. Investors will closely scrutinise key indicators from the United States, Europe, and Asia. Following recent weak U.S. jobs data, market participants will be keenly focused on inflation figures and other economic metrics for signs of a potential recession. Meanwhile, in…

U.S.A. Fed Easing to Weigh on USD The US Dollar (USD) is expected to weaken as the Federal Reserve (Fed) transitions towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance. The central bank’s anticipated rate cuts aim to bolster economic growth, reducing the USD’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Economic Headwinds While the US economy has shown…